Morning Insights Radio | January 1, 2025

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The financial landscape has undergone a notable evolution as we transition into 2024, marked by fluctuating stock performances across global marketsThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq have notably faced declines, with the S&P experiencing its longest end-of-year slump in nearly six decadesNevertheless, a significant rebound from the previous two years saw these indices appreciate by over 20% each year, amounting to an impressive cumulative growth of around 53%, which stands as the largest two-year gain in this centuryHowever, as the year closed, tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla saw notable drops—down over 2% and 3% respectively—while Chinese stocks exhibited contrary resilience, with Pinduoduo rallying nearly 3% on the final trading day.

In terms of year-end performance, the landscape appears mixedThe S&P 500 managed to close the year with a cumulative gain exceeding 20%, while the Nasdaq recorded an even more impressive rise of nearly 30%. Additional highlights include quantum computing stocks that surged tremendously, showcasing gains of over 1400%. Major players in the tech realm such as MicroStrategy, recognized for its substantial Bitcoin holdings, saw an increase of more than 300%, while Tesla's stock rose over 60%, and Nvidia's performances rocketed by 170% by the year's end.

Analyzing the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S

Treasury notes reveals a fluctuation pattern; after hitting the lowest point in over a week, yields later ascendedFor 2024, there was a noteworthy increase of approximately 70 basis pointsSimultaneously, the dollar index met new heights not seen in two years, climbing by 7% for the year—its best performance in nine years—while the yen struggled, plummeting over 10% and marking its fourth consecutive yearly declineOther currency fluctuations included the offshore yuan dipping near 7.37, a two-year low, and Bitcoin testing the waters at $96,000 before retreating, ultimately appreciating around 120% for the year.

Not to be overlooked, gold experienced a recovery from its recent lower valuations, achieving a remarkable annual increase of nearly 30%, representing the largest annual appreciation since 2010. In contrast, crude oil trended upward for three consecutive days, yet Brent crude still saw an annual drop of over 3%, continuing a two-year decline.

The Asian market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, concluded its year with a rise of almost 13%. This was bolstered by increases of more than 40% across China's four major banks

China Mobile reached historical peaks while the country's bond futures collectively ascendedAmidst these developments, TSMC's stock faced a slight drop of over 1% on the day, yet concluded the year with an impressive over 80% increase, the best performance since 1999, helping Taiwan’s stock market outpace its Asian counterparts.

As the market closed, the U.Sstock indices reflected a day of declines: the Dow Jones dipped by 0.07%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq listed a drop of 0.9%. Across the Atlantic, European markets showed mixed outcomesThe STOXX 600 index rose by 0.55%, concluding the year with a gain of 5.98%, while France's CAC 40 index closed up by 0.92%, ultimately falling by 2.2% for the yearIn the UK, the FTSE 100 index saw a growth of 0.6% for a total yearly increase of 5.7%.

The Chinese A-shares didn’t fare as well, with the Shanghai index declining by 1.63% while still boasting an annual uptick of 12.67%. Shenzhen's Composite index also dropped by 2.4%, ending the year with a modest 9.34% rise, whereas the ChiNext index faced a 2.93% decrease, concluding with a cumulative gain of 13.23% for the year.

In the bond market, the yields on the U.S

10-year Treasury bonds fell by 8.06 basis points, landing at 4.5447%. The two-year Treasury yields also saw a decrease, down by 7.42 basis points to 4.2521%.

Commodity markets indicated noteworthy dynamics, with February WTI crude futures climbing by 1.03%, settling at $71.72 per barrel, representing a slight increase of 0.1% for the yearBrent crude for March rose by 0.88% to $74.64 per barrel, marking a fall of 3.1% for the yearGold futures for February gained 0.87%, reaching $2641 per ounce, overall indicating a remarkable increase of nearly 29% for the yearMeanwhile, copper and zinc prices fell over 1%, and tin saw a significant quarter decline of over 13% but rallied overall with a 14% rise throughout 2024.

The past year has also been a canvas for significant events in the commercial worldAmong the top ten global business happenings in 2024 were Elon Musk's bold ventures, the rise of Broadcom, and Google's introduction of its quantum computing chip, Willow

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The enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence continued, with Nvidia's market capitalization exceeding that of Microsoft for the first time, claiming the title of the world's most valuable companyFurthermore, SpaceX's innovative 'rocket-in-a-chopsticks' approach suggests that humanity's aspirations to land on Mars might not be as distant a dreamThe arrival of Google's Willow quantified the future of quantum computing, prompting comparisons to the nascent stages of AI a decade ago.

In another dimension, the wealth of the world's top 500 billionaires escalated, crossing the $10 trillion mark collectivelyThis extraordinary growth was largely fueled by the soaring value of U.Stech stocks, with Silicon Valley stalwarts like Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Bezos, and Ellison witnessing their fortunes surge by over $600 billion within the year, together constituting 43% of the total global wealth increase among the richest individuals

Notably, Musk alone saw his wealth inflate by over $200 billion.

Goldman Sachs is influential in shaping economic forecasts, presenting its '2.0' key issues for 2024. They anticipate that the American economy and consumption will surpass prevalent market expectations; however, they still maintain a dovish stance compared to the consensus, predicting that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts thrice in 2025 across March, June, and September, while deeming it improbable that Powell will face dismissal or demotion.

Turning towards the international scene, the U.Shousing market reached new heights in OctoberHowever, the pace of increase slowed, partially due to improving inventory levels that allowed buyers to negotiate better terms; New York led the way among the top 20 cities in terms of price appreciationRecent data indicates that October marked the 17th consecutive month of record-high U.S

home prices, although the annual growth slowed to 3.6%, down from September's 3.9%. Meanwhile, prices in the top 20 cities increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a slight deceleration from the previous month's 4.6%, with New York city showcasing the highest rate of growth at 7.3%.

Adjacent to these developments, Tesla has faced scrutiny amid its recent price dropsAnalysts attribute these declines to weak market sentiment affecting U.Sstocks alongside specific pressures on Tesla, such as lackluster sales, a shift in Musk's focus away from electric vehicles, intensified competition, and challenges surrounding autonomous driving technology integrationOn the cusp of potential developments, rumors suggest that the Cybertruck could make its debut in China shortlyHowever, Tesla China's official stance refuted this speculation, although their website now lists the Cybertruck among available models, detailing three variations: the Cyberbeast, all-wheel drive, and rear-wheel drive versions

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